# 竞衡智核 · Football Prediction Hit Rate / 足球预测命中率

> Daily-settled prediction hit rates for 5 Chinese football betting markets over rolling 30 / 50 / 100-match windows. 每日结算后的 5 大市场滚动命中率。 Outcomes and probabilities only — this site never publishes odds.

## Freshness 时效

- dataset: `football-prediction-hit-rate` (schemaVersion `1.0.0`)
- generated_at: `2026-07-25T08:54:56.451Z`
- data_through (sales date 销售日): `2026-07-24`
- coverage: `2026-07-16` → `2026-07-24` · 9 day(s) · 69 settled match(es)
- update_schedule: `daily 08:00 Asia/Shanghai` (timezone `Asia/Shanghai`)

## Hit rate — Top-N 命中率

hit = the realized outcome falls inside the predicted Top-N set. 命中 = 实际结果落在预测 Top-N 之内。

| market 市场 | scope | last 30 | last 50 | last 100 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 胜负平 · 1X2 (win / draw / loss) | Top2 | 80.0% (24/30) | 82.0% (41/50) | 84.1% (58/69*) |
| 让球胜负平 · Asian-style handicap 1X2 | Top2 | 66.7% (20/30) | 56.0% (28/50) | 59.4% (41/69*) |
| 总球数 · Total goals bucket | Top3 | 66.7% (20/30) | 66.0% (33/50) | 65.2% (45/69*) |
| 半全场 · Half-time / full-time | Top3 | 70.0% (21/30) | 72.0% (36/50) | 72.5% (50/69*) |
| 比分 · Correct score | Top5 | 53.3% (16/30) | 46.0% (23/50) | 49.3% (34/69*) |

`*` = sample smaller than the window label (history still accumulating). 带 `*` 表示样本量小于窗口标称值，请以括号内实际场数为准。

## Hit rate — Top1 首选命中率

top1 = the realized outcome equals the single highest-probability prediction. 首选命中 = 实际结果等于概率最高的那一项预测。

| market 市场 | scope | last 30 | last 50 | last 100 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 胜负平 · 1X2 (win / draw / loss) | Top1 | 50.0% (15/30) | 52.0% (26/50) | 55.1% (38/69*) |
| 让球胜负平 · Asian-style handicap 1X2 | Top1 | 40.0% (12/30) | 40.0% (20/50) | 40.6% (28/69*) |
| 总球数 · Total goals bucket | Top1 | 30.0% (9/30) | 34.0% (17/50) | 34.8% (24/69*) |
| 半全场 · Half-time / full-time | Top1 | 33.3% (10/30) | 36.0% (18/50) | 34.8% (24/69*) |
| 比分 · Correct score | Top1 | 13.3% (4/30) | 14.0% (7/50) | 18.8% (13/69*) |

## Markets 市场定义

- `wdl` — 胜负平 / 1X2 (win / draw / loss) · Top2 · settled 69
  - hit: Full-time result label equals one of the predicted Top-2 selections.
  - skip: Never skipped when a full-time score exists.
- `handicapWdl` — 让球胜负平 / Asian-style handicap 1X2 · Top2 · settled 69
  - hit: Full-time result after applying the match handicap line equals one of the predicted Top-2 selections.
  - skip: Not settled (excluded from the window) when the handicap line is unavailable.
- `totalGoals` — 总球数 / Total goals bucket · Top3 · settled 69
  - hit: Full-time total goals (capped at the 7+ bucket) falls into one of the predicted Top-3 buckets.
  - skip: Never skipped when a full-time score exists.
- `htft` — 半全场 / Half-time / full-time · Top3 · settled 69
  - hit: Half-time and full-time outcome pair equals one of the predicted Top-3 selections.
  - skip: Not settled when the upstream report has no half-time/full-time market (bqcAvailable=false) or the half-time score is missing.
- `correctScore` — 比分 / Correct score · Top5 · settled 69
  - hit: Exact full-time score equals a predicted Top-5 selection, or the realized result falls into a predicted 胜其它/平其它/负其它 fallback bucket.
  - skip: Falls back to the legacy Top-4 set on reports that predate Top-5.

## Compliance 合规

仅限数据分析，不作投资建议。Informational data analysis only, not investment advice.